A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
